Nomogram predicting the risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection of primary non-metastatic gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors: An analysis of the U.S. Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group.

Merath K, Bagante F, Beal EW, Lopez-Aguiar AG, Poultsides G, Makris E, Rocha F, Kanji Z, Weber S, Fisher A, Fields R, Krasnick BA, Idrees K, Smith PM, Cho C, Beems M, Schmidt CR, Dillhoff M, Maithel SK, Pawlik TM
J Surg Oncol. 2018 117 (5): 868-878

PMID: 29448303 · PMCID: PMC5992105 · DOI:10.1002/jso.24985

BACKGROUND - The risk of recurrence after resection of non-metastatic gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET) is poorly defined. We developed/validated a nomogram to predict risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection.

METHODS - A training set to develop the nomogram and test set for validation were identified. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed using c-indices.

RESULTS - Among 1477 patients, 673 (46%) were included in the training set and 804 (54%) in y the test set. On multivariable analysis, Ki-67, tumor size, nodal status, and invasion of adjacent organs were independent predictors of DFS. The risk of death increased by 8% for each percentage increase in the Ki-67 index (HR 1.08, 95% CI, 1.05-1.10; P < 0.001). GEP-NET invading adjacent organs had a HR of 1.65 (95% CI, 1.03-2.65; P = 0.038), similar to tumors ≥3 cm (HR 1.67, 95% CI, 1.11-2.51; P = 0.014). Patients with 1-3 positive nodes and patients with >3 positive nodes had a HR of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.12-2.87; P = 0.014) and 2.51 (95% CI, 1.50-4.24; P < 0.001), respectively. The nomogram demonstrated good ability to predict risk of recurrence (c-index: training set, 0.739; test set, 0.718).

CONCLUSION - The nomogram was able to predict the risk of recurrence and can be easily applied in the clinical setting.

© 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

MeSH Terms (13)

Cohort Studies Female Follow-Up Studies Gastrointestinal Neoplasms Humans Male Middle Aged Neoplasm Recurrence, Local Neuroendocrine Tumors Nomograms Prognosis Risk Factors Survival Rate

Connections (1)

This publication is referenced by other Labnodes entities:

Links