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AIMS - Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) often has a mucinous component, with more than 50% mucin by volume defining the mucinous subtype of CRC. The prognostic impact of the mucinous phenotype remains unclear.
METHODS AND RESULTS - We evaluated 224 CRC with at least 5% mucinous component (herein 'mCRC') for patient sex, age, race and outcome; tumour size, location, stage and microsatellite instability (MSI) status; percentage of glands producing mucin; percentage of tumour volume composed of mucin; whether tumoral epithelium floated in mucin pools; tumour budding; signet ring cells (SRCs); and peritumoural inflammation (PI). We related these features to disease-specific survival and compared outcomes to 499 stage-matched, conventional colorectal adenocarcinomas. Factors predicting worse prognosis in mCRC on univariable analysis included non-MSI-high status (P = 0.0008), SRC (P = 0.0017) and lack of PI (P = 0.0034). No parameters were independently associated with outcome after adjusting for tumour stage in multivariate analysis. The percentage of glands producing mucin and percentage tumour volume composed of mucin did not affect prognosis, including at the recommended 50% cut-off for subtyping mCRC. Disease-specific survival for mCRC and adenocarcinomas were similar after accounting for stage.
CONCLUSIONS - Stage-matched mCRCs and adenocarcinomas have similar outcomes, with no prognostic significance to morphological subtyping. Histological characteristics of mCRC, including percentage of tumour volume comprised of mucin, were not predictive of outcome.
© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PURPOSE - Several observational studies suggest that metformin reduces incidence cancer risk; however, many of these studies suffer from time-related biases and several cancer outcomes have not been investigated due to small sample sizes.
METHODS - We constructed a propensity score-matched retrospective cohort of 84,434 veterans newly prescribed metformin or a sulfonylurea as monotherapy. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to assess the association between metformin use compared to sulfonylurea use and incidence cancer risk for 10 solid tumors. We adjusted for clinical covariates including hemoglobin A1C, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medications, and body mass index. Incidence cancers were defined by ICD-9-CM codes.
RESULTS - Among 42,217 new metformin users and 42,217 matched-new sulfonylurea users, we identified 2,575 incidence cancers. Metformin was inversely associated with liver cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.44, 95% CI 0.31, 0.64) compared to sulfonylurea. We found no association between metformin use and risk of incidence bladder, breast, colorectal, esophageal, gastric, lung, pancreatic, prostate, or renal cancer when compared to sulfonylurea use.
CONCLUSIONS - In this large cohort study that accounted for time-related biases, we observed no association between the use of metformin and most cancers; however, we found a strong inverse association between metformin and liver cancer. Randomized trials of metformin for prevention of liver cancer would be useful to verify these observations.
RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE - Inflammation, cardiac remodeling, and fibrosis may explain in part the excess risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), galectin 3 (Gal-3), and soluble ST2 (sST2) are possible biomarkers of these pathways in patients with CKD.
STUDY DESIGN - Observational cohort study.
SETTING & PARTICIPANTS - Individuals with CKD enrolled in either of 2 multicenter CKD cohort studies: the Seattle Kidney Study or C-PROBE (Clinical Phenotyping and Resource Biobank Study).
EXPOSURES - Circulating GDF-15, Gal-3, and sST2 measured at baseline.
OUTCOMES - Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospitalization for physician-adjudicated heart failure and the atherosclerotic CVD events of myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular accident.
ANALYTIC APPROACH - Cox proportional hazards models used to test the association of each biomarker with each outcome, adjusting for demographics, CVD risk factors, and kidney function.
RESULTS - Among 883 participants, mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 49±19mL/min/1.73m. Higher GDF-15 (adjusted HR [aHR] per 1-SD higher, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.53-2.29), Gal-3 (aHR per 1-SD higher, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.36-1.78), and sST2 (aHR per 1-SD higher, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.17-1.58) concentrations were significantly associated with mortality. Only GDF-15 level was also associated with heart failure events (HR per 1-SD higher, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.12-2.16). There were no detectable associations between GDF-15, Gal-3, or sST2 concentrations and atherosclerotic CVD events.
LIMITATIONS - Event rates for heart failure and atherosclerotic CVD were low.
CONCLUSIONS - Adults with CKD and higher circulating GDF-15, Gal-3, and sST2 concentrations experienced greater mortality. Elevated GDF-15 concentration was also associated with an increased rate of heart failure. Further work is needed to elucidate the mechanisms linking these circulating biomarkers with CVD in patients with CKD.
Copyright © 2018 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
OBJECTIVE - To investigate race-sex associations with risk among whites and blacks in the southeastern United States. The relationship between race, sex, and kidney stone risk is poorly understood.
METHODS - Participants were 42,136 black and white adults enrolled in the Southern Community Cohort Study between 2002 and 2009, with no history of kidney stones and receiving Medicare or Medicaid services. Incident kidney stone diagnoses through December 2014 were determined via linkage with Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services research files. Hazard ratios (HRs) for associations with race and sex were computed from multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for baseline characteristics, comorbid diseases, and dietary intakes.
RESULTS - During 116,931 and 270,917 person-years of follow-up for whites and blacks, respectively, age-adjusted incidence rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) were 5.98 (4.73-7.23) and 4.50 (3.86-5.14) per 1000 person-years for white men and women, respectively, while corresponding rates among blacks were 2.19 (1.71-2.67) and 2.47 (2.19-2.75) per 1000 person-years. Risk was higher among whites compared to blacks (HR = 2.23, 95% CI 1.97-2.53). Male sex was significantly associated with risk among whites (HR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.20-1.75), but not among blacks (HR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.75-1.07). Formal tests of interaction by race and sex were statistically significant for all models (P = .01 for fully adjusted model).
CONCLUSION - The association of incident kidney stones with sex differs between whites and blacks. White men have the highest risk, while no difference in risk is observed between black men and women.
Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND - Late-life depression (LLD) is associated with a fragile antidepressant response and high recurrence risk. This study examined what measures predict recurrence in remitted LLD.
METHODS - Individuals of age 60 years or older with a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual - IV (DSM-IV) diagnosis of major depressive disorder were enrolled in the neurocognitive outcomes of depression in the elderly study. Participants received manualized antidepressant treatment and were followed longitudinally for an average of 5 years. Study analyses included participants who remitted. Measures included demographic and clinical measures, medical comorbidity, disability, life stress, social support, and neuropsychological testing. A subset underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).
RESULTS - Of 241 remitted elders, approximately over 4 years, 137 (56.8%) experienced recurrence and 104 (43.2%) maintained remission. In the final model, greater recurrence risk was associated with female sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.536; confidence interval [CI] = 1.027-2.297), younger age of onset (HR = 0.990; CI = 0.981-0.999), higher perceived stress (HR = 1.121; CI = 1.022-1.229), disability (HR = 1.060; CI = 1.005-1.119), and less support with activities (HR = 0.885; CI = 0.812-0.963). Recurrence risk was also associated with higher Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) scores prior to censoring (HR = 1.081; CI = 1.033-1.131) and baseline symptoms of suicidal thoughts by MADRS (HR = 1.175; CI = 1.002-1.377) and sadness by Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (HR = 1.302; CI, 1.080-1.569). Sex, age of onset, and suicidal thoughts were no longer associated with recurrence in a model incorporating report of multiple prior episodes (HR = 2.107; CI = 1.252-3.548). Neither neuropsychological test performance nor MRI measures of aging pathology were associated with recurrence.
CONCLUSIONS - Over half of the depressed elders who remitted experienced recurrence, mostly within 2 years. Multiple clinical and environmental measures predict recurrence risk. Work is needed to develop instruments that stratify risk.
© 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
For a decade, The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) program collected clinicopathologic annotation data along with multi-platform molecular profiles of more than 11,000 human tumors across 33 different cancer types. TCGA clinical data contain key features representing the democratized nature of the data collection process. To ensure proper use of this large clinical dataset associated with genomic features, we developed a standardized dataset named the TCGA Pan-Cancer Clinical Data Resource (TCGA-CDR), which includes four major clinical outcome endpoints. In addition to detailing major challenges and statistical limitations encountered during the effort of integrating the acquired clinical data, we present a summary that includes endpoint usage recommendations for each cancer type. These TCGA-CDR findings appear to be consistent with cancer genomics studies independent of the TCGA effort and provide opportunities for investigating cancer biology using clinical correlates at an unprecedented scale.
Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND - High cyclooxygenase (COX)-2 expression in ovarian tumors has been associated with poor prognosis, but the role of COX-1 expression and its relation to survival is less clear. Here, we evaluated COX expression and associations with survival outcomes between type I (clear cell, mucinous, low grade endometrioid and low grade serous) and type II (high grade serous and high grade endometrioid) ovarian tumors.
METHODS - We developed and validated a new COX-1 antibody, and conducted immunohistochemical (IHC) staining for COX-1 and COX-2 on a tissue microarray (TMA) of 190 primary ovarian tumors. In addition to standard IHC scoring and H-scores to combine the percentage of positive cells and staining intensity, we also measured COX-1 and COX-2 mRNA expression by QPCR. High expression was defined as greater than or equal to median values. Clinical characteristics and disease outcomes were ascertained from medical records. Associations with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were quantified by hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) from proportional hazards regression.
RESULTS - Type I tumors had high COX-2 expression, while type II tumors had high COX-1 expression. In multivariable adjusted regression models, higher COX-1 mRNA expression was associated with shorter DFS (HR: 6.37, 95% CI: 1.84-22.01) and OS (HR: 2.26, 95% CI: 1.04-4.91), while higher H-scores for COX-2 expression were associated with shorter DFS (HR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.06-3.49). Stratified analysis indicated that COX-2 was significantly associated with DFS among cases with Type II tumors (HR: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.06-3.53).
CONCLUSIONS - These findings suggest that ovarian tumor type contributes to differences in COX expression levels and associations with survival.
BACKGROUND - For Chinese patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), surgical resection is the most important treatment to achieve long-term survival for patients with an early-stage tumor, and yet the prognosis after surgery is diverse. We aimed to construct a scoring system (Shanghai Score) for individualized prognosis estimation and adjuvant treatment evaluation.
METHODS - A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was constructed based on 4166 HCC patients undergoing resection during 2001-2008 at Zhongshan Hospital. Age, hepatitis B surface antigen, hepatitis B e antigen, partial thromboplastin time, total bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, γ-glutamyltransferase, α-fetoprotein, tumor size, cirrhosis, vascular invasion, differentiation, encapsulation, and tumor number were finally retained by a backward step-down selection process with the Akaike information criterion. The Harrell's concordance index (C-index) was used to measure model performance. Shanghai Score is calculated by summing the products of the 14 variable values times each variable's corresponding regression coefficient. Totally 1978 patients from Zhongshan Hospital undergoing resection during 2009-2012, 808 patients from Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital during 2008-2010, and 244 patients from Tianjin Medical University Cancer Hospital during 2010-2011 were enrolled as external validation cohorts. Shanghai Score was also implied in evaluating adjuvant treatment choices based on propensity score matching analysis.
RESULTS - Shanghai Score showed good calibration and discrimination in postsurgical HCC patients. The bootstrap-corrected C-index (confidence interval [CI]) was 0.74 for overall survival (OS) and 0.68 for recurrence-free survival (RFS) in derivation cohort (4166 patients), and in the three independent validation cohorts, the CI s for OS ranged 0.70-0.72 and that for RFS ranged 0.63-0.68. Furthermore, Shanghai Score provided evaluation for adjuvant treatment choices (transcatheter arterial chemoembolization or interferon-α). The identified subset of patients at low risk could be ideal candidates for curative surgery, and subsets of patients at moderate or high risk could be recommended with possible adjuvant therapies after surgery. Finally, a web server with individualized outcome prediction and treatment recommendation was constructed.
CONCLUSIONS - Based on the largest cohort up to date, we established Shanghai Score - an individualized outcome prediction system specifically designed for Chinese HCC patients after surgery. The Shanghai Score web server provides an easily accessible tool to stratify the prognosis of patients undergoing liver resection for HCC.
OBJECTIVE - Cardiovascular and renal complications contribute to higher mortality in patients with diabetes. We assessed novel and conventional predictors of mortality in African American-Diabetes Heart Study (AA-DHS) participants.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Associations between mortality and subclinical atherosclerosis, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), plasma fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) concentration, African ancestry proportion, and apolipoprotein L1 genotypes () were assessed in 513 African Americans with type 2 diabetes; analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards models.
RESULTS - At baseline, participants were 55.6% female with median (25th, 75th percentile) age 55 years (49.0, 62.0), diabetes duration 8 years (5.0, 13.0), glycosylated hemoglobin 60.7 mmol/mol (48.6, 76.0), eGFR 91.3 mL/min/1.73 m (76.4, 111.3), UACR 12.5 mg/mmol (4.2, 51.2), and coronary artery calcium 28.5 mg Ca (1.0, 348.6); 11.5% had two renal-risk variants. After 6.6-year follow-up (5.8, 7.5), 54 deaths were recorded. Higher levels of coronary artery calcified plaque, carotid artery calcified plaque, albuminuria, and FGF23 were associated with higher mortality after adjustment for age, sex, and African ancestry proportion. A penalized Cox regression that included all covariates and predictors associated with mortality identified male sex (hazard ratio [HR] 4.17 [95% CI 1.96-9.09]), higher FGF23 (HR 2.10 [95% CI 1.59-2.78]), and absence of renal-risk genotypes (HR 0.07 [95% CI 0.01-0.69]) as the strongest predictors of mortality.
CONCLUSIONS - Accounting for conventional risk factors, higher FGF23 concentrations and non-renal-risk genotypes associated with higher mortality in African Americans with diabetes. These data add to growing evidence supporting FGF23 association with mortality; mechanisms whereby these novel predictors impact survival remain to be determined.
© 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.
OBJECTIVE - To assess whether interpregnancy interval length after a pregnancy loss is associated with risk of repeat miscarriage.
METHODS - This analysis includes pregnant women participating in the Right From the Start (2000-2012) community-based prospective cohort study whose most recent pregnancy before enrollment ended in miscarriage. Interpregnancy interval was defined as the time between a prior miscarriage and the last menstrual period of the study pregnancy. Miscarriage was defined as pregnancy loss before 20 weeks of gestation. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate crude and adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the association between different interpregnancy interval lengths and miscarriage in the study pregnancy. Adjusted models included maternal age, race, parity, body mass index, and education.
RESULTS - Among the 514 study participants who reported miscarriage as their most recent pregnancy outcome, 15.7% had a repeat miscarriage in the study pregnancy (n=81). Median maternal age was 30 years (interquartile range 27-34) and 55.6% of participants had at least one previous livebirth (n=286). When compared with women with interpregnancy intervals of 6-18 months (n=136), women with intervals of less than 3 months (n=124) had the lowest risk of repeat miscarriage (7.3% compared with 22.1%; adjusted hazard ratio 0.33, 95% CI 0.16-0.71). Neither maternal race nor parity modified the association. Attempting to conceive immediately was not associated with increased risk of miscarriage in the next pregnancy.
CONCLUSION - An interpregnancy interval after pregnancy loss of less than 3 months is associated with the lowest risk of subsequent miscarriage. This implies counseling women to delay conception to reduce risk of miscarriage may not be warranted.