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Frailty is a predominant predictor of poor outcomes in older populations. This article presents a review of the concept of frailty and its role for prognostication among geriatric trauma and surgery patients. We discuss models of frailty defined in the scientific literature, emphasizing that frailty is a process of biologic aging. We emphasize the importance of screening, assessment, and inclusion of frailty indices for the development and use of prognostication instruments/tools in the population of interest. Finally, we discuss best practices for the delivery of prognostic information in acute care settings and specific recommendations for trauma and surgical care settings.
Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
AIMS - We conducted a prospective study of emergency department (ED) patients with acute heart failure (AHF) to determine if worsening HF (WHF) could be predicted based on urinary electrolytes during the first 1-2 h of ED care. Loop diuretics are standard therapy for AHF patients. A subset of patients hospitalized for AHF will develop a blunted natriuretic response to loop diuretics, termed diuretic resistance, which often leads to WHF. Early detection of diuretic resistance could facilitate escalation of therapy and prevention of WHF.
METHODS AND RESULTS - Patients were eligible if they had an ED AHF diagnosis, had not yet received intravenous diuretics, had a systolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg, and were not on dialysis. Urine electrolytes and urine output were collected at 1, 2, 4, and 6 h after diuretic administration. Worsening HF was defined as clinically persistent or WHF requiring escalation of diuretics or administration of intravenous vasoactives after the ED stay. Of the 61 patients who qualified in this pilot study, there were 10 (16.3%) patients who fulfilled our definition of WHF. At 1 h after diuretic administration, patients who developed WHF were more likely to have low urinary sodium (9.5 vs. 43.0 mmol; P < 0.001) and decreased urine sodium concentration (48 vs. 80 mmol/L; P = 0.004) than patients without WHF. All patients with WHF had a total urine sodium of <35.4 mmol at 1 h (100% sensitivity and 60% specificity).
CONCLUSIONS - One hour after diuretic administration, a urine sodium excretion of <35.4 mmol was highly suggestive of the development of WHF. These relationships require further testing to determine if early intervention with alternative agents can prevent WHF.
© 2018 The Authors. ESC Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.
PURPOSE - We investigated the relationship of painful bladder filling and urinary urgency to somatic and chronic pain symptoms in women with overactive bladder without an interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome diagnosis.
MATERIALS AND METHODS - Women who met overactive bladder criteria based on symptoms were recruited, including 183 (83.9%) from the community and 35 (16.1%) from the urology clinic to complete validated questionnaires assessing urinary symptoms, somatic symptoms and pain syndromes. Participants were categorized into 1 of 3 groups, including 1) neither symptom, 2) either symptom or 3) both symptoms, based on their reports of painful urinary urgency and/or painful bladder filling. Multivariable regression analyses were performed to determine factors predictive of having painful urgency and/or painful filling.
RESULTS - Of 218 women with overactive bladder 101 (46%) had neither painful bladder filling nor urinary urgency, 94 (43%) had either symptom and 23 (11%) had both symptoms. When controlling for age, women with either or both urological pain symptoms were more likely to have irritable bowel syndrome, chronic pelvic pain and temporomandibular disorder than women in the neither group. Additionally, these women had higher pain intensity and somatic symptoms scores than women with neither symptom.
CONCLUSIONS - The majority of women with overactive bladder who had not been diagnosed with interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome reported painful urgency and/or painful filling. Experiencing painful urgency and/or filling was associated with an increased somatic symptom burden and greater pain intensity. These findings support the hypothesis that overactive bladder and interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome diagnoses may represent a continuum of bladder hypersensitivity.
Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.
OBJECTIVE - We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.
RESULTS - Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; = 0.0002).
CONCLUSIONS - The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.
© 2018 by the American Diabetes Association.
Chronic end-organ complications result in morbidity and mortality in adults with sickle cell disease (SCD). In a retrospective-prospective cohort of 150 adults with SCD who received standard care screening for pulmonary function abnormalities, cardiac disease, and renal assessment from January 2003 to 2016, we tested the hypothesis that clustering of end-organ disease is common and multiple organ impairment predicts mortality. Any end-organ disease occurred in 59.3% of individuals, and 24.0% developed multiple organ (>1) end-organ disease. The number of end-organs affected was associated with mortality (P ≤ .001); 8.2% (5 of 61) of individuals with no affected end-organ, 9.4% (5 of 53) of those with 1 affected organ, 20.7% (6 of 29) of those with 2 affected end-organs, and 85.7% (6 of 7) with 3 affected end-organs died over a median follow up period of 8.7 (interquartile range 3.5-11.4) years. Of the 22 individuals who died, 77.3% had evidence of any SCD-related end-organ impairment, and this was the primary or secondary cause of death in 45.0%. SCD-related chronic impairment in multiple organs, and its association with mortality, highlights the need to understand the common mechanisms underlying chronic end-organ damage in SCD, and the urgent need to develop interventions to prevent irreversible end-organ complications in SCD.
© 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Mesenteric tumor deposits are an adverse prognostic factor for small intestinal well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumors. Per the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Cancer Staging Manual (eighth edition), any mesenteric tumor deposit larger than 2 cm signifies pN2 disease. This criterion has not been critically evaluated as a prognostic factor for small intestinal neuroendocrine tumors, nor have multifocality or histologic features of mesenteric tumor deposits. We evaluated 70 small intestinal neuroendocrine tumors with mesenteric tumor deposits for lesional contour, sclerosis, inflammation, calcification, entrapped blood vessels, and perineural invasion. Ki67 proliferative indices of the largest mesenteric tumor deposit from each case were calculated, and number of tumor deposits and size of the largest deposit were recorded. Associations between these factors (along with patient age, primary tumor Ki67 index, and AJCC stage) and development of liver metastases and overall survival were assessed. Median mesenteric tumor deposit size was 1.5 cm (range: 0.2-7.0 cm); median deposit number was 1 (range: 1-13). Primary and tumor deposit Ki67 indices within a given patient were discordant in 40% of cases but showed similar hazard ratios for disease-specific survival. Size of tumor deposits had no significant effect on prognosis, whether analyzed on a continuous scale or dichotomized using the recommended 2 cm cutoff. In contrast, increasing number of deposits was associated with poor prognosis, with multiple deposits conferring an 8.19-fold risk of disease-specific death compared to a single deposit (P = 0.049). Morphologic features of deposits had no prognostic impact. Size of mesenteric tumor deposits does not affect prognosis in small intestinal neuroendocrine tumor patients; instead, deposit multifocality is associated with shorter disease-specific survival and should be incorporated into future staging criteria.
BACKGROUND - Coronary artery calcified plaque (CAC) is strongly predictive of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality, both in general populations and individuals with type 2 diabetes at high risk for CVD. CAC is typically reported as an Agatston score, which is weighted for increased plaque density. However, the role of CAC density in CVD risk prediction, independently and with CAC volume, remains unclear.
METHODS - We examined the role of CAC density in individuals with type 2 diabetes from the family-based Diabetes Heart Study and the African American-Diabetes Heart Study. CAC density was calculated as mass divided by volume, and associations with incident all-cause and CVD mortality [median follow-up 10.2 years European Americans (n = 902, n = 286 deceased), 5.2 years African Americans (n = 552, n = 93 deceased)] were examined using Cox proportional hazards models, independently and in models adjusted for CAC volume.
RESULTS - In European Americans, CAC density, like Agatston score and volume, was consistently associated with increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality (p ≤ 0.002) in models adjusted for age, sex, statin use, total cholesterol, HDL, systolic blood pressure, high blood pressure medication use, and current smoking. However, these associations were no longer significant when models were additionally adjusted for CAC volume. CAC density was not significantly associated with mortality, either alone or adjusted for CAC volume, in African Americans.
CONCLUSIONS - CAC density is not associated with mortality independent from CAC volume in European Americans and African Americans with type 2 diabetes.
BACKGROUND - Late-life depression (LLD) is associated with a fragile antidepressant response and high recurrence risk. This study examined what measures predict recurrence in remitted LLD.
METHODS - Individuals of age 60 years or older with a Diagnostic and Statistical Manual - IV (DSM-IV) diagnosis of major depressive disorder were enrolled in the neurocognitive outcomes of depression in the elderly study. Participants received manualized antidepressant treatment and were followed longitudinally for an average of 5 years. Study analyses included participants who remitted. Measures included demographic and clinical measures, medical comorbidity, disability, life stress, social support, and neuropsychological testing. A subset underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).
RESULTS - Of 241 remitted elders, approximately over 4 years, 137 (56.8%) experienced recurrence and 104 (43.2%) maintained remission. In the final model, greater recurrence risk was associated with female sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.536; confidence interval [CI] = 1.027-2.297), younger age of onset (HR = 0.990; CI = 0.981-0.999), higher perceived stress (HR = 1.121; CI = 1.022-1.229), disability (HR = 1.060; CI = 1.005-1.119), and less support with activities (HR = 0.885; CI = 0.812-0.963). Recurrence risk was also associated with higher Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) scores prior to censoring (HR = 1.081; CI = 1.033-1.131) and baseline symptoms of suicidal thoughts by MADRS (HR = 1.175; CI = 1.002-1.377) and sadness by Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (HR = 1.302; CI, 1.080-1.569). Sex, age of onset, and suicidal thoughts were no longer associated with recurrence in a model incorporating report of multiple prior episodes (HR = 2.107; CI = 1.252-3.548). Neither neuropsychological test performance nor MRI measures of aging pathology were associated with recurrence.
CONCLUSIONS - Over half of the depressed elders who remitted experienced recurrence, mostly within 2 years. Multiple clinical and environmental measures predict recurrence risk. Work is needed to develop instruments that stratify risk.
© 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
PURPOSE - The identification of biomarkers related to the prognosis of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is critically important for improved understanding of the biology that drives TNBC progression.
METHODS - We evaluated gene expression in total RNA isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumor samples using the NanoString nCounter assay for 469 TNBC cases from the Shanghai Breast Cancer Survival Study. We used Cox regression to quantify Hazard Ratios (HR) and corresponding confidence intervals (CI) for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in models that included adjustment for breast cancer intrinsic subtype. Of 302 genes in our discovery analysis, 22 were further evaluated in relation to OS among 134 TNBC cases from the Nashville Breast Health Study and the Southern Community Cohort Study; 16 genes were further evaluated in relation to DFS in 335 TNBC cases from four gene expression omnibus datasets. Fixed-effect meta-analysis was used to combine results across data sources.
RESULTS - Twofold higher expression of EOMES (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83-0.97), RASGRP1 (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82-0.97), and SOD2 (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.66-0.96) was associated with better OS. Twofold higher expression of EOMES (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81-0.97) and RASGRP1 (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.81-0.95) was also associated with better DFS. On the contrary, a doubling of FA2H (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.06-1.22) and GSPT1 (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.14-1.55) expression was associated with shorter DFS.
CONCLUSIONS - We identified five genes (EOMES, FA2H, GSPT1, RASGRP1, and SOD2) that may serve as potential prognostic biomarkers and/or therapeutic targets for TNBC.
BACKGROUND - The American Thyroid Association (ATA) recommends fine-needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy of nodules measuring >1.5 cm with low-suspicion sonographic patterns or >1.0 cm with high/intermediate-suspicion features. Routine biopsy of nodules <1 cm is not recommended. However, despite these recommendations, subcentimeter nodules are often referred for FNA biopsy.
METHODS - This was a retrospective chart review of consecutive thyroid FNAs during an 18-month period (1157 patients, 1491 nodules, 2016-2017) to evaluate age, sex, medical history, diagnoses, and follow-up. Radiographic information was used to identify 61 subcentimeter nodules (4%) from 57 patients. Ultrasound studies were re-evaluated using criteria according to the American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging, Reporting, and Data System (TI-RADS).
RESULTS - Reported reasons for biopsy included a larger companion nodule (44%), a personal or family history of cancer (26%), or a suspicious sonogram, including calcification and/or irregular contours (16%). FNA diagnoses included: 69% benign (42 of 61 nodules), 10% papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) (6 of 61 nodules), and 15% atypia of undetermined significance/follicular lesion of undetermined significance (AUS/FLUS) (9 of 61 nodules). Seven percent of nodules were unsatisfactory/nondiagnostic (4 of 61 nodules) compared with a 3% nondiagnostic rate for all sized nodules. Fifty-one nodules had an ultrasound available for re-review using the TI-RADS scoring system. A high TI-RADS score (4-5) was indicative of PTC in 29.4% of nodules. A low TI-RADS score (1-2) was indicative of PTC in 0% of nodules (P < .01). High and intermediate TI-RADS scores (3 and 4-5, respectively) were indicative of PTC/AUS/FLUS in 32% of nodules compared with 0% in those with low TI-RADS scores (P < .01).
CONCLUSIONS - The current results demonstrate successful use of the TI-RADS scoring system in evaluation of the risk of malignancy in subcentimeter nodules. Larger studies will be necessary to determine whether biopsy is warranted for TI-RADS high-subcentimeter nodules. Cancer Cytopathol 2018. © 2018 American Cancer Society.
© 2018 American Cancer Society.