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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) involves significant metabolic abnormalities and has a high mortality rate. Because the levels of serum metabolites in patients with CKD might provide insight into subclinical disease states and risk for future mortality, we determined which serum metabolites reproducibly associate with mortality in CKD using a discovery and replication design. Metabolite levels were quantified via untargeted liquid chromatography and mass spectroscopy from serum samples of 299 patients with CKD in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study as a discovery cohort. Six among 622 metabolites were significantly associated with mortality over a median follow-up of 17 years after adjustment for demographic and clinical covariates, including urine protein and measured glomerular filtration rate. We then replicated associations with mortality in 963 patients with CKD from the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension (AASK) cohort over a median follow-up of ten years. Three of the six metabolites identified in the MDRD cohort replicated in the AASK cohort: fumarate, allantoin, and ribonate, belonging to energy, nucleotide, and carbohydrate pathways, respectively. Point estimates were similar in both studies and in meta-analysis (adjusted hazard ratios 1.63, 1.59, and 1.61, respectively, per doubling of the metabolite). Thus, selected serum metabolites were reproducibly associated with long-term mortality in CKD beyond markers of kidney function in two well characterized cohorts, providing targets for investigation.
Copyright © 2018 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE - Inflammation, cardiac remodeling, and fibrosis may explain in part the excess risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), galectin 3 (Gal-3), and soluble ST2 (sST2) are possible biomarkers of these pathways in patients with CKD.
STUDY DESIGN - Observational cohort study.
SETTING & PARTICIPANTS - Individuals with CKD enrolled in either of 2 multicenter CKD cohort studies: the Seattle Kidney Study or C-PROBE (Clinical Phenotyping and Resource Biobank Study).
EXPOSURES - Circulating GDF-15, Gal-3, and sST2 measured at baseline.
OUTCOMES - Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospitalization for physician-adjudicated heart failure and the atherosclerotic CVD events of myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular accident.
ANALYTIC APPROACH - Cox proportional hazards models used to test the association of each biomarker with each outcome, adjusting for demographics, CVD risk factors, and kidney function.
RESULTS - Among 883 participants, mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 49±19mL/min/1.73m. Higher GDF-15 (adjusted HR [aHR] per 1-SD higher, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.53-2.29), Gal-3 (aHR per 1-SD higher, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.36-1.78), and sST2 (aHR per 1-SD higher, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.17-1.58) concentrations were significantly associated with mortality. Only GDF-15 level was also associated with heart failure events (HR per 1-SD higher, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.12-2.16). There were no detectable associations between GDF-15, Gal-3, or sST2 concentrations and atherosclerotic CVD events.
LIMITATIONS - Event rates for heart failure and atherosclerotic CVD were low.
CONCLUSIONS - Adults with CKD and higher circulating GDF-15, Gal-3, and sST2 concentrations experienced greater mortality. Elevated GDF-15 concentration was also associated with an increased rate of heart failure. Further work is needed to elucidate the mechanisms linking these circulating biomarkers with CVD in patients with CKD.
Copyright © 2018 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND - Adults hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) are at high risk for short-term mortality. However, it is unclear whether improvements in in-hospital pneumonia care could substantially lower this risk. We extensively reviewed all in-hospital deaths in a large prospective CAP study to assess the cause of each death and assess the extent of potentially preventable mortality.
METHODS - We enrolled adults hospitalized with CAP at five tertiary-care hospitals in the United States. Five physician investigators reviewed the medical record and study database for each patient who died to identify the cause of death, the contribution of CAP to death, and any preventable factors potentially contributing to death.
RESULTS - Among 2,320 enrolled patients, 52 (2.2%) died during initial hospitalization. Among these 52 patients, 33 (63.4%) were ≥ 65 years old, and 32 (61.5%) had ≥ two chronic comorbidities. CAP was judged to be the direct cause of death in 27 patients (51.9%). Ten patients (19.2%) had do-not-resuscitate orders prior to admission. Four patients were identified in whom a lapse in quality of care potentially contributed to death; preexisting end-of-life limitations were present in two of these patients. Two patients seeking full medical care experienced a lapse in in-hospital quality of pneumonia care that potentially contributed to death.
CONCLUSIONS - In this study of adults with CAP at tertiary-care hospitals with a low mortality rate, most in-hospital deaths did not appear to be preventable with improvements in in-hospital pneumonia care. Preexisting end-of-life limitations in care, advanced age, and high comorbidity burden were common among those who died.
Copyright © 2018 American College of Chest Physicians. All rights reserved.
Background - We investigated whether CD4:CD8 ratio and CD8 count were prognostic for all-cause, AIDS, and non-AIDS mortality in virologically suppressed patients with high CD4 count.
Methods - We used data from 13 European and North American cohorts of human immunodeficiency virus-infected, antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naive adults who started ART during 1996-2010, who were followed from the date they had CD4 count ≥350 cells/μL and were virologically suppressed (baseline). We used stratified Cox models to estimate unadjusted and adjusted (for sex, people who inject drugs, ART initiation year, and baseline age, CD4 count, AIDS, duration of ART) all-cause and cause-specific mortality hazard ratios for tertiles of CD4:CD8 ratio (0-0.40, 0.41-0.64 [reference], >0.64) and CD8 count (0-760, 761-1138 [reference], >1138 cells/μL) and examined the shape of associations using cubic splines.
Results - During 276526 person-years, 1834 of 49865 patients died (249 AIDS-related; 1076 non-AIDS-defining; 509 unknown/unclassifiable deaths). There was little evidence that CD4:CD8 ratio was prognostic for all-cause mortality after adjustment for other factors: the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for lower vs middle tertile was 1.11 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.25). The association of CD8 count with all-cause mortality was U-shaped: aHR for higher vs middle tertile was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.01-1.26). AIDS-related mortality declined with increasing CD4:CD8 ratio and decreasing CD8 count. There was little evidence that CD4:CD8 ratio or CD8 count was prognostic for non-AIDS mortality.
Conclusions - In this large cohort collaboration, the magnitude of adjusted associations of CD4:CD8 ratio or CD8 count with mortality was too small for them to be useful as independent prognostic markers in virally suppressed patients on ART.
© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
INTRODUCTION - African Americans and low-income whites have higher mortality than the U.S. general population. This study prospectively investigated the combined influence of major lifestyle factors and poverty on mortality in this vulnerable population.
METHODS - Data were collected in 2002-2009 from 79,101 Southern Community Cohort Study participants, of which 67% were African American and 55% had household incomes <$15,000. Mortality outcomes were identified from the National Death Index though December 31, 2011 (data analyzed in 2014-2015). Healthy behavior scores were created based on tobacco smoking, alcohol intake, diet, physical activity, and sedentary time. The primary analysis was performed based on the score created by counting each participant as having met/not met public health guidelines for each behavior.
RESULTS - Healthy behavior scores were associated with reduced cancer, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. Associations were stronger for whites than African Americans: hazard ratios for all-cause mortality comparing participants meeting four or five guidelines versus participants meeting zero were 0.41 (95% CI=0.30, 0.55) for African American men; 0.36 (95% CI=0.24, 0.55) for white men; 0.46 (95% CI=0.36, 0.59) for African American women; and 0.27 (95% CI=0.18, 0.43) for white women. The association between healthy lifestyle and all-cause mortality was weaker among those with incomes <$15,000 than those with higher income, particularly in men (p<0.05 for interaction).
CONCLUSIONS - This study demonstrates the importance of health behaviors on mortality among all groups, but highlights the need for additional research to identify factors contributing to high risk of mortality among low-income and African American populations.
Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND - Nearly 4.3 million deaths worldwide were attributable to exposure to household air pollution in 2012. However, household coal use remains widespread.
OBJECTIVES - We investigated the association of cooking coal and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a prospective cohort of primarily never-smoking women in Shanghai, China.
METHODS - A cohort of 74,941 women were followed from 1996 through 2009 with annual linkage to the Shanghai vital statistics database. Cause-specific mortality was identified through 2009. Use of household coal for cooking was assessed through a residential history questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards models estimated the risk of mortality associated with household coal use.
RESULTS - In this cohort, 63% of the women ever used coal (n = 46,287). Compared with never coal use, ever use of coal was associated with mortality from all causes [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05, 1.21], cancer (HR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.27), and ischemic heart disease (overall HR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.14, 2.27; HR for myocardial infarction specifically = 1.80; 95% CI: 1.16, 2.79). The risk of cardiovascular mortality increased with increasing duration of coal use, compared with the risk in never users. The association between coal use and ischemic heart disease mortality diminished with increasing years since cessation of coal use.
CONCLUSIONS - Evidence from this study suggests that past use of coal among women in Shanghai is associated with excess all-cause mortality, and from cardiovascular diseases in particular. The decreasing association with cardiovascular mortality as the time since last use of coal increased emphasizes the importance of reducing use of household coal where use is still widespread.
CITATION - Kim C, Seow WJ, Shu XO, Bassig BA, Rothman N, Chen BE, Xiang YB, Hosgood HD III, Ji BT, Hu W, Wen C, Chow WH, Cai Q, Yang G, Gao YT, Zheng W, Lan Q. 2016. Cooking coal use and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a prospective cohort study of women in Shanghai, China. Environ Health Perspect 124:1384-1389; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP236.
BACKGROUND - Emphysema on CT is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in persons with and without airflow obstruction; however, causes of death associated with emphysema remain uncertain, particularly in the general population.
AIMS - To test associations between quantitatively assessed emphysema on CT and cause of death in persons with and without a substantial smoking history.
METHODS - The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis recruited 6814 participants, aged 45-84 years and without clinical cardiovascular disease, in 2000-2002. Per cent emphysema was defined on cardiac CT as per cent of lung voxels less than -950 Hounsfield units; emphysema on CT was defined as per cent emphysema above the upper limit of normal. Cause of death was classified by administrative codes. Proportional-hazards models were adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, gender, body mass index, smoking status, pack-years, coronary artery calcium, site and education. Additional adjustment for lung function was made in a subset with spirometry from 2004 to 2006.
RESULTS - There were 1091 deaths over 12 years median follow-up. Emphysema on CT was strongly associated with increased mortality due to respiratory diseases (adjusted HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.68 to 5.15), particularly chronic lower respiratory diseases (adjusted HR 9.54, 95% CI 4.70 to 19.35), and lung cancer (adjusted HR 1.84, 95% CI 1.09 to 3.12), but not cardiovascular disease. Associations persisted among participants with fewer than 10 pack-years and those without physician-diagnosed respiratory disease, and were similar after adjustment for airflow measures and in persons without airflow limitation.
CONCLUSIONS - Quantitatively assessed emphysema on CT is associated with greater respiratory disease and lung cancer mortality, even among persons without traditional risk factors.
Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/
BACKGROUND - Reduced left ventricular systolic function predicts worse outcomes. However, the optimal threshold for "normal" left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is uncertain. In general, LVEF ≥ 55% is considered to be "normal" by guidelines, with a low normal designation for LVEF being 50%-55%. We assessed the prognosis of participants with low normal LVEF in the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. All participants were asymptomatic and had no known clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline.
METHODS AND RESULTS - A total of 4926 out of 6814 had LVEF assessed with the use of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), had no significant valvular disease, did not have myocardial infarction during follow-up, had complete data, and were included in this analysis. A total of 83/4926 (1.7%) had LVEF < 50% (low LVEF) and 101/4926 (2.1%) had low normal LVEF. Cox proportional hazard and cubic spline analyses were used to evaluate the association between LVEF category and 10 years of adjudicated incident congestive heart failure (CHF) and all-cause mortality adjusting for (model 1) age, sex, and race and (model 2) model 1 and diabetes mellitus, smoking, systolic blood pressure (BP), BP medications, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, low-density lipoprotein, family history of coronary heart disease, educational status, and LV mass. Mean age was 61 ± 10 years, 47% were men, 35% were on BP medications, 9% had diabetes. After 10.2 years of follow-up, 109 (2.2%) had CHF and 427 (8.7%) died. Compared with normal LVEF (≥55%), low normal LVEF and low LVEF were associated with an increased risk for incident CHF during follow-up in our multivariable Cox models: hazard ratios (HRs) 3.64 (95% CI 1.76-7.52) and 9.52 (5.63-17.52), respectively. Unlike low LVEF, low normal LVEF was not associated with increased risk of death compared with normal LVEF in our fully adjusted models: HRs 3.03 (1.94-4.73) and 1.32 (0.72-2.41), respectively. In the adjusted spline analysis HR of LVEF 55% as reference, LVEF had a U-shape association of future CHF risk and LVEF.
CONCLUSION - Low normal LVEF is as prevalent as low LVEF in asymptomatic community-dwelling adults. We observed a gradient-response association between the 3 categories of LVEF (low, low normal, and normal) and incident CHF but not for all-cause death.
Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
BACKGROUND - The most appropriate targets for systolic blood pressure to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality among persons without diabetes remain uncertain.
METHODS - We randomly assigned 9361 persons with a systolic blood pressure of 130 mm Hg or higher and an increased cardiovascular risk, but without diabetes, to a systolic blood-pressure target of less than 120 mm Hg (intensive treatment) or a target of less than 140 mm Hg (standard treatment). The primary composite outcome was myocardial infarction, other acute coronary syndromes, stroke, heart failure, or death from cardiovascular causes.
RESULTS - At 1 year, the mean systolic blood pressure was 121.4 mm Hg in the intensive-treatment group and 136.2 mm Hg in the standard-treatment group. The intervention was stopped early after a median follow-up of 3.26 years owing to a significantly lower rate of the primary composite outcome in the intensive-treatment group than in the standard-treatment group (1.65% per year vs. 2.19% per year; hazard ratio with intensive treatment, 0.75; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64 to 0.89; P<0.001). All-cause mortality was also significantly lower in the intensive-treatment group (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.90; P=0.003). Rates of serious adverse events of hypotension, syncope, electrolyte abnormalities, and acute kidney injury or failure, but not of injurious falls, were higher in the intensive-treatment group than in the standard-treatment group.
CONCLUSIONS - Among patients at high risk for cardiovascular events but without diabetes, targeting a systolic blood pressure of less than 120 mm Hg, as compared with less than 140 mm Hg, resulted in lower rates of fatal and nonfatal major cardiovascular events and death from any cause, although significantly higher rates of some adverse events were observed in the intensive-treatment group. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01206062.).
Asians have high prevalence of central obesity despite the low prevalence of general obesity. We evaluated associations between the central obesity measure, waist-hip ratio (WHR) with total and cause-specific mortality in middle-aged and elderly Chinese participants. Data arise from two prospective population-based cohort studies: the Shanghai Men's Health Study involves 53,425 men (participation rate = 74.0%), age 40-74 at baseline, and the Shanghai Women's Health Study involves 63,017 women (participation rate = 92.7%), age 40-70 at baseline. Information on lifestyle factors and anthropometric measurements were taken at baseline interview. Vital status and causes of death were obtained via surveys and annual linkages to relevant Shanghai registries through December 31, 2011. After median follow-up time of 7.5 years for the Shanghai Men's Health Study and 13.2 years for the Shanghai Women's Health Study, there were 2,058 and 3,167 deaths, respectively. In models adjusted for BMI and other potential confounders, WHR was associated with all-cause mortality; hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) across the first to fifth quintile increased from 1 (Reference), 1.10 (0.95,1.27), 1.21 (1.04,1.41), 1.11 (0.96,1.30), to 1.42 (1.22,1.65) in men and from 1 (Reference), 1.10 (0.96,1.27), 1.11 (0.97,1.27), 1.20 (1.05,1.37), to 1.48 (1.30,1.69) in women. WHR had a stronger association with cardiovascular disease, with multivariate-adjusted HRs of 1.5 to 1.7 observed for the highest versus lowest quintile of WHR. Dose-response associations were also seen for cancer and other-cause deaths. Stratified analyses suggested a stronger association with mortality among normal weight (BMI <25) than over-weight (BMI ≥25) individuals. Positive associations with mortality were observed in subgroups defined by follow-up duration, comorbidity, age, smoking, and physical activity. Greater central adiposity is associated with increased mortality in Chinese adults, even among individuals with low BMI. Physicians and the public should be aware of central adiposity's independent effects on health.